Blackrock: Political Polarization Creating Lack of Consumer Confidence

Pretty regularly here at the CC Capital Advisors blog, we ask the question: "Why have the markets failed to rebound as fundamentals improve, equity markets rally and an abundance of capital sits idle in a low income environment?" As we wrote previously, healthcare had a tough time in 2013 due to the Affordable Care Act casting a shadow of uncertainty over the market. Russ Koesterich, Chief Investment Strategist at Blackrock recently released a paper that postulates that political uncertainty extends beyond healthcare to tax code, regulatory issues and more. Russ explains that the budget deal has removed the risk of another government shutdown, but continued uncertainty about the ACA and partisan gridlock are making consumers and businesses alike uneasy. According to the figure below, party polarization is at its worst point in fifty years. This graph measures the difference in voting patterns between the Democrat and Republican members of Congress. As you can see, the gap is widening, not narrowing.   So, what does this mean for the wider deal market? First, the uncertainty of the political situation is most likely impacting more than just the health care industry. When a government is unable to govern properly, there is a resulting lack of confidence in that market. This is generally seen in emerging markets, where a sovereign government may make investment difficult or risky, but can also take place in developed countries. Secondly, it will be interesting to see just how good the fundamentals and market opportunities need to be to overcome this lack of faith in the political system. At some point, one would expect deal makers to take advantage of opportunities even if they lack faith in the broader political situation; this will only happen when the reward outweighs the associated risk. Finally, Russ concludes that if there are any sort of "surprises" of the positive sort from Washington, we could see pent up deal demand released into the market place. Of course, that would require a miracle in the form of Congress getting their act together. Read the entire report from Blackrock here.

Actavis to Acquire Forest Laboratories for $25 Billion

Today, Actavis announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Forest Laboratories. Forest is based in New York, NY, but has Midwest operations in Earth City, MO. The purchase price of $25 billion represents a 25% premium over Forest's stock price. The merger is expected to generate double digit accretion in 2015 and 2016, with approximately $1 billion in synergies to be realized within the first three years. If successfully completed, the merger would combine a generic juggernaut in Actavis with a leading name brand producer in Forest. If the transaction closes, the combined entity would have projected revenues of more than $15 billion in 2015, with strong free cash flows in excess of $4 billion. As 2014 rolls on, several interesting deals are coming to light. The Actavis-Forest merger announcement comes on the heels of a potential business combination of Comcast and Time Warner, which is estimated at ~$45 billion in value. Hopefully, these large deals will spur the lower middle and middle markets to follow suit, although the glut of megadeals in 2013 did not seem to have that impact. Read the full press release from Actavis here.

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